What happens when a country leaves the euro? Part 2
What happens when a country leaves the euro? Part 1
What happens when a country leaves the euro? Part 3
“Immediate effects:
1 .- Currency devaluation
The euro would disappear to make way for a new coin, a new penny or a new shield. The new coins would be born devalued against other currencies like the euro or the dollar, causing:
- Exports more competitive: abroad would take fewer euros (or dollars) to buy products. A similar effect would occur in tourism.
- Imports more expensive, imported products would be more expensive. Greece, Portugal or Spain imports virtually all oil and gas they consume, energy and transport price would skyrocket.
- Inflation: no necessarily have to be an inflationary scenario. Depend on interest rates that would set the central bank.
- Debt: pay off the debts would be more costly, as many would remain denominated in euros. Debtors would have to buy euros to repay their debts revalued.
2 .- Interest Rates
Interest rates would have to rise necessarily to prevent an inflationary spiral and to try to moderate the capital flight.
- Financing: banks severely restrict credit, since it would be more subject to external funding to redress the lack of domestic savings. With the money more expensive, less accessible and more risk in lending interest for families and businesses grow.
- Status: The government would have serious problems to finance the sovereign debt markets.
- Creditors: banks have to pay their debts in international markets in euros, this would cause demand, in turn, that their borrowers do likewise. It would, therefore, a very high risk of widespread default.
- Debtors: families and businesses would be faced with a really black picture. Receive their income in the new currency, but would have to pay their old debts in euros.”
